The US-Iran Ceasefire Holds, but a Durable Settlement Remains Out of Reach
Source: Polymarket market “US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?”
a coin flip (50%)
Leading outcome
October 31 50%
A coin flip · Rising · A · tracked 47 days
peak 100% (26d ago) · low 87% (44d ago)
21 tier changes over tracking period
venues disagree 23.5pp
24h move
▼
48.8 pts
October 31
Traded 24h
$2.6M
$35.2M all time
Resolves by
2027-01-01
Source markets
24
24 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
October 31
50%
▼
48.8
November 2
45%
▼
52.3
November 3
2%
0.0
November 6
1%
0.0
November 22
1%
▼
39.7
November 4
1%
▼
91.8
Source markets for this story
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · October 31 50% · -48.8 24h
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Polymarket · Gadi Eizenkot 44%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Polymarket · March 31 63% · -0.5 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · November 1 100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 18%
Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
Kalshi · No one 47% · +5.0 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Polymarket · Yes 2% · -92.0 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 4%
Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
Polymarket · Gadi Eizenkot 93% · +10.0 24h
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
Polymarket · December 31, 2026 44% · +4.0 24h
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Polymarket · November 6 52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 12%
Iran full airspace closure by...?
Polymarket · December 31 35% · -2.0 24h
Iran leader end of 2026?
Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 84% · -1.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Polymarket · Yes 6%
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Polymarket · Dilution of Iran's Uranium 16% · +2.0 24h
Iran coup attempt by...?
Polymarket · December 31, 2027 22% · -4.5 24h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Polymarket · December 31 27% · -0.5 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 8% · +1.4 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
Polymarket · Yes 28% · -0.5 24h
Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?
Polymarket · 8+ 97% · +1.1 24h
Next Israeli government formed by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 78% · +6.5 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Polymarket · December 31 14%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 2%
The Money Talks —
Eizenkot's Lead Is Real — But This Race Is Far From Settled
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