U.S.odds favor James Talarico

James Talarico Edges Ahead of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate Race

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Texas Senate winner?”

James Talarico: leaning yes (60%)
Resolved The money put Ken Paxton at 53% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome James Talarico 60% Leaning yes · Stable · B · tracked 53 days peak 59% · low 50% (10d ago) 8 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 29.5pp
24h move ▲ 1.0 pts James Talarico
Traded 24h $126K $13.4M all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03
Source markets 10 10 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

James Talarico 60% ▲ 1.0
Ken Paxton 40% ▼ 3.0

Source markets for this story

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 59% · +1.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 92% · +2.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 90% · +0.5 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 60% · +1.0 24h
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 60% · +1.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Below 193 29% · -2.0 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 60%
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 59% · -1.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 55%
South Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 86%
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 10 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 53 days range 90% (0d ago) – 86% (47d ago) trending in today's news 5 tier changes venues disagree 29.5pp
U.S. wide open

AOC Edges Ahead in a Genuinely Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Field

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: unlikely (18%)

A three-way statistical tie at the top — with Newsom and Ossoff right behind — means the Democratic nomination is the most open it has been in a generation; on the Republican side, Vance leads his own primary but faces a real general-election contest, with no candidate anywhere near a lock on the White House.

Updated 6:09 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $462K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 53 days range 23% (27d ago) – 18% (40d ago) venues disagree 12.4pp
U.S. odds favor Karen Bass

Karen Bass Holds a Narrowing Lead in the Los Angeles Mayor Race

Karen Bass: leaning yes (62%)

Bass has slid to her tracking low as Raman closes to 38% — the race is tightening into a genuine contest, and the current gap is thin enough that a further shift could flip it.

Updated 8:31 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $699K venue Kalshi grade C tracked 53 days range 68% (34d ago) – 61% (2d ago)