U.S.Bill Hagerty on track to win

Bill Hagerty Is Very Likely to Hold Tennessee's Senate Seat

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Tennessee Senate winner?”

Bill Hagerty: very likely (91%)
Resolved The money put Bill Hagerty at 91% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Bill Hagerty 91% Very likely · Falling · B · tracked 4 days venues disagree 26.2pp
24h move ▼ 2.9 pts Bill Hagerty
Traded 24h $71K $172K all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03
Source markets 29 29 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Bill Hagerty 91% ▼ 2.9
Marquita Bradshaw 5% ▼ 1.2

Source markets for this story

Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 91%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 65%
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 65%
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 92%
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 65% · +1.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 64% · -1.0 24h
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 73% · +1.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 70% · -5.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 66% · +1.0 24h
New Hampshire Senate winner? Kalshi · Chris Pappas 89%
Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi · Roger Marshall 64% · -2.0 24h
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 54% · -3.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 38% · +3.0 24h
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 58% · +1.0 24h
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Polymarket · Yes 98%
Tennessee Senate winner? Kalshi · Bill Hagerty 91% · -2.9 24h
South Carolina Senate winner? Kalshi · Darline Graham 86% · -1.0 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 72% · -2.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 28% · -1.0 24h
Kansas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Roger Marshall (R) 64% · -3.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 82% · +2.1 24h
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 87% · +1.0 24h
Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi · Iowa 19% · +3.0 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 64%
Florida Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Moody (R) 90%
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) 55% · -2.5 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 84% · -1.0 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 57% · -1.0 24h
Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo Polymarket · Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems 38% · +1.0 24h
The Money Talks — The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 29 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 70 days range 94% (3d ago) – 86% (64d ago) trending in today's news 5 tier changes venues disagree 26.2pp
U.S. wide open

Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Field as AOC Surges

J.D. Vance: unlikely (20%)

No candidate commands conviction — the field is so fractured that the nominal frontrunner holds barely one-in-five odds, meaning the 2028 race is genuinely anyone's to claim. AOC's nomination odds remain well below her general-election ceiling, signaling real doubt she clears the Democratic primary.

Updated 9:50 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $402K markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 70 days range 23% (18d ago) – 18% (52d ago) venues disagree 31.2pp
U.S.

Alito Is Probably Not Retiring by Mid-2027

probably not (34%)

His departure remains more likely than not to wait — but a sharp move in the end-of-year window suggests bettors see some scenario, perhaps external pressure, that could accelerate his exit before the term ends.

Updated 1:45 AM ET ▼ drifting down for days
the numbers
traded today $56K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 65 days range 42% (14d ago) – 28% (58d ago) unlikely → probably not