Kurt Alme Is Likely to Win Montana's Senate Race
Source: Kalshi market “Montana Senate winner?”
Kurt Alme: very likely (91%)
Leading outcome
Kurt Alme 91%
Very likely · Rising · B · tracked 78 days
peak 92% (2d ago) · low 84% (77d ago)
likely → very likely
venues disagree 26.5pp
24h move
▼
0.9 pts
Kurt Alme
Traded 24h
$52K
$904K all time
Resolves by
2027-11-03
Source markets
27
27 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Kurt Alme
91%
▼
0.9
Seth Bodnar
11%
▲
2.1
Alani Bankhead
1%
0.1
Source markets for this story
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 62%
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 90%
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 62%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 62%
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 69% · +1.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 66% · +1.0 24h
Minnesota Senate winner?
Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 85% · -2.0 24h
South Carolina Senate winner?
Kalshi · Darline Graham 83% · -2.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 37% · +3.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 90%
Mississippi Senate winner?
Kalshi · Cindy Hyde-Smith 87% · -3.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 63% · +1.0 24h
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 59% · +1.0 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 64%
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 70% · -2.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo
Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 48% · +2.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 26% · -1.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 62%
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 75% · -1.5 24h
Montana Senate winner?
Kalshi · Kurt Alme 91% · -0.9 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 96% · -3.0 24h
TX-06 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jake Ellzey (R) 99% · +4.3 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
Polymarket · No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 65% · +0.8 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 66%
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 96%
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $85; D Senate 59% · -1.5 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · ≤47 40% · +0.5 24h
The Money Talks —
The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
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