The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Virtually Certain to Top 5% by October
Source: Kalshi market “10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 19, 2026?”
virtually certain (99%)
Leading outcome
4.96% or above 99%
Virtually certain · C
a coin flip → virtually certain
24h move
0.0 pts
4.96% or above
Traded 24h
$68K
$106K all time
Resolves by
2026-10-19
Today
Where the money stands
4.96% or above
99%
0.0
4.98% or above
99%
▲
1.0
5% or above
99%
▲
3.0
5.02% or above
99%
▲
12.0
5.04% or above
99%
▲
22.0
5.06% or above
99%
▲
29.0
The Front Page, every morning — what the markets believe about the world.