U.S.

US-Iran nuclear deal?

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “US-Iran nuclear deal?”

probably not (29%)
Leading outcome Before Jan 20, 2029 29% Probably not · Stable · A · tracked 47 days peak 66% (33d ago) · low 29% (2d ago) 8 tier changes over tracking period
24h move 0.0 pts Before Jan 20, 2029
Traded 24h $34K $3.1M all time
Resolves by 2029-01-20
Source markets 21 21 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Before Jan 20, 2029 29% 0.0
Before Jan 1, 2028 21% ▲ 1.0
Before Mar 1, 2027 12% ▼ 1.0
Before Feb 1, 2027 9% ▼ 1.0
Before Jan 1, 2027 9% ▲ 1.2
Before Dec 1, 2026 5% ▼ 3.0

Source markets for this story

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) Polymarket · September 30 98% · +3.8 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · December 31 64% · +3.6 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16%
Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket · September 30 97%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 15 99% · +0.7 24h
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Polymarket · March 31, 2027 57% · -1.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 18%
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...? Polymarket · September 30 46% · -8.0 24h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · October 31 46% · +2.0 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 10% · +1.0 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 1%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13) Kalshi · Above 10 99% · +1.0 24h
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7? Polymarket · 30-34 39% · +5.5 24h
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 8% · +1.0 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 8%
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 91% · -0.6 24h
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Polymarket · Iran Reconstruction Funding 16% · +3.0 24h
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 13%
The Money Talks — The Guns Have Gone Quiet — and the Money Says They'll Stay That Way
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traded today $33K markets read 7 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 46 days range 91% (6d ago) – 13% (12d ago) trending in today's news likely → very likely 3 tier changes venues disagree 3.5pp