U.S.odds favor 38.7%

Trump's Approval Rating Is Pinned Near 38.7% Heading Into Late September

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 27, 2026?”

38.7%: leaning yes (63%)
From our archive This story ran in an earlier edition of the paper. It stays on the record at this address; the front page and sections carry only current stories.
Leading outcome 38.7% 63% Leaning yes · C
24h move 0.0 pts 38.7%
Traded 24h $72K $74K all time
Resolves by 2026-09-27 Today

Where the money stands

38.7% 63% 0.0
38.6% 16% 0.0
38.8% 11% 0.0
38.5% 6% 0.0
38.9% 4% 0.0
39.0% 4% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. odds favor Democrats Sweep

Democrats Are Increasingly Favored to Sweep the 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep: leaning yes (66%)

A full Democratic sweep — both chambers — has climbed from 44% two months ago to its current peak, and the money on individual Senate battlegrounds in Ohio and Texas is moving the same direction. The Republican path now rests almost entirely on holding the Senate, a task that looks harder by the day.

Updated 3:28 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $421K markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 60 days range 66% (3d ago) – 44% (58d ago) 2 tier changes venues disagree 29.4pp
U.S. odds favor Ashley Hinson (R)

Ashley Hinson Edges Ahead in Iowa's Senate Race, but It Remains Contested

Ashley Hinson (R): leaning yes (58%)

The broader Senate map tells a more clarifying story: Democrats are favored in Texas and Michigan, Republicans are locked in South Carolina and Kansas, and North Carolina is nearly decided for Democrats — Iowa sits in the genuinely competitive middle, a race either party can still win.

Updated 5:04 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $42K markets read 13 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 42 days range 62% (8d ago) – 50% (4d ago) 2 tier changes
U.S. leaning Keisha Lance Bottoms

Georgia's Governor's Race Is a Dead Heat

Keisha Lance Bottoms: a coin flip (54%)

Rick Jackson's sudden surge — up 7 points in a day while Keisha Lance Bottoms slipped — turns what looked like a Democratic lean into a genuine toss-up. Georgia's governorship, long a bellwether of Sun Belt realignment, is now too close to call.

Updated 5:59 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $208K venue Kalshi grade C tracked 5 days range 56% (4d ago) – 51% (0d ago)