Finance

EV Commodity Prices Are Virtually Certain to Remain Elevated Through Early August

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “EV commodity prices on Aug 10, 2026”

virtually certain (99%)
Leading outcome Above 1167.25 99% Virtually certain · C
24h move 0.0 pts Above 1167.25
Traded 24h $29K $29K all time
Resolves by 2026-08-11 in 1 day

Where the money stands

Above 1167.25 99% 0.0
Above 1177.25 99% 0.0
Above 1187.25 99% 0.0
Above 1197.25 99% 0.0
Above 1227.25 92% 0.0
Above 1207.25 91% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from Finance

Finance odds favor No change

The Fed Holds in September as a Hike Remains a Live Threat

No change: leaning yes (62%)

A cut is essentially off the table and no rate reductions are expected anywhere in 2026, meaning any policy error from here runs in one direction — the risk is tightening, not easing, even as the hold remains the base case.

Updated 4:34 PM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $1.0M markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A
Finance a real race

US Annual Inflation Is Heading for 3.3% in July

3.3%: probably not (40%)

A soft but real monthly print is locking in an above-3% annual rate — the money now splits almost evenly between 3.3% and 3.4%, with any path back toward the Fed's target firmly off the table for this reading.

Updated 2:44 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $54K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade B resolves in 2 days
Finance odds favor 3.1%+

Eurozone Inflation Is Increasingly Headed Above 3% for 2026

3.1%+: leaning yes (62%)

Persistent above-target inflation would corner the ECB, forcing it to hold rates higher for longer even as growth softens — a stagflationary bind that the 62% probability now makes the central scenario, not a tail risk.

Updated 6:41 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $46K venue Polymarket grade C