U.S.one clear front-runner

Mike Johnson's Hold on House Republican Leadership Is Slipping

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?”

Mike Johnson: probably not (43%)
Resolved The money put Mike Johnson at 43% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Mike Johnson 43% Probably not · C
24h move ▼ 12.0 pts Mike Johnson
Traded 24h $36K $41K all time
Resolves by 2027-11-30

Where the money stands

Mike Johnson 43% ▼ 12.0
Jim Jordan 29% ▲ 1.0
Steve Scalise 10% ▲ 3.0
Hakeem Jeffries 6% ▲ 4.0
Tom Emmer 3% ▲ 1.0
Katherine Clark 2% ▲ 1.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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JD Vance: unlikely (21%)

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U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: likely (88%)

A House flip looks probable, but full Democratic control of Congress remains a different, narrower bet — the Senate leans Republican, making unified Democratic government unlikely even if the House flips, and restraining what any new House majority could actually deliver.

Updated 1:07 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $41K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade B trending in today's news