Ken Paxton's Texas Victory Margin Is an Open Question
Source: Kalshi market “Texas Senate margin of victory”
probably not (35%)
Leading outcome
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts 35%
Probably not · Rising · B · tracked 5 days
peak 43% (3d ago) · low 32% (4d ago)
venues disagree 26.5pp
24h move
0.0 pts
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
Traded 24h
$39K
$521K all time
Resolves by
2027-11-03
Source markets
28
28 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
35%
0.0
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
26%
▼
4.0
Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
16%
0.0
Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
11%
▼
5.0
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
11%
▲
2.0
Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
6%
▲
0.9
Source markets for this story
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 64% · +1.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 62%
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 90%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 61% · +2.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 68% · +1.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 61%
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 62% · -2.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 90%
Texas Governor winner?
Kalshi · Greg Abbott 81% · +1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 48 18% · +2.0 24h
South Carolina Senate winner?
Kalshi · Darline Graham 85% · -1.0 24h
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Kalshi · Nithya Raman 51% · -1.0 24h
Florida Governor winner?
Kalshi · Byron Donalds 78% · +1.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026?
Kalshi · Yes 83% · -3.0 24h
Massachusetts Governor winner?
Kalshi · Maura Healey 94%
New York Attorney General winner?
Kalshi · Letitia James 92% · +5.3 24h
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Roger Marshall 63%
Iowa Senate winner?
Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 58% · +2.0 24h
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
Kalshi · Yes 29% · +2.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 26%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 64%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 35%
Texas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Ken Paxton, 1+ pts 35%
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 57% · -1.0 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 70% · +2.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Mary Peltola 72%
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Roger Marshall (R) 64% · +2.0 24h
OH-14 House Election Winner
Polymarket · David Joyce (R) 96% · +0.9 24h
The Money Talks —
The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
Get an alert when Us 2026 Midterms moves.
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