Democrats Have a Narrow Edge to Flip Texas and Hold Maine in 2026
Source: Kalshi market “Maine-Texas Senate Combo”
James Talarico and Troy Jackson: a coin flip (51%)
Leading outcome
James Talarico and Troy Jackson 51%
A coin flip · Rising · A · tracked 47 days
peak 49% (14d ago) · low 39% (46d ago)
3 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
▲
6.0 pts
James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Traded 24h
$166K
$1.4M all time
Resolves by
2027-11-03
Source markets
9
9 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
James Talarico and Troy Jackson
51%
▲
6.0
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
27%
▼
5.0
James Talarico and Susan Collins
20%
▲
3.0
Ken Paxton and Troy Jackson
6%
▼
5.0
James Talarico and Graham Platner
1%
0.0
Ken Paxton and Graham Platner
1%
0.0
Source markets for this story
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 66% · +2.0 24h
Iowa Senate winner?
Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 57% · +1.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo
Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 51% · +6.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 64% · +1.0 24h
Minnesota Senate winner?
Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 86%
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 74% · +3.0 24h
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 56% · -2.0 24h
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 86% · -1.0 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 58%
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