World

The S&P 500 Is Likely Above 7,725 by October 2

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “S&P price range on Oct 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT?”

S&P above 7,725: likely (80%)
Leading outcome S&P above 7,725 80% Likely · Rising · B · tracked 4 days peak 51% · low 17% (3d ago) a coin flip → likely 3 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 19.0 pts S&P above 7,725
Traded 24h $627K $786K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-02 Today

Where the money stands

7,700 to 7,724.9999 48% ▲ 31.0
7,575 to 7,599.9999 25% ▲ 16.0
7,750 to 7,774.9999 25% ▲ 19.0
7,625 to 7,649.9999 23% ▲ 9.0
7,650 to 7,674.9999 14% ▲ 3.0
7,725 to 7,749.9999 14% ▼ 5.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from World

World odds favor Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Brazil's Presidential Race but Lula Closes Ground

Flávio Bolsonaro: leaning yes (56%)

A runoff now looks nearly certain — Bolsonaro is virtually certain to qualify but increasingly likely to finish second in the first round, setting up a head-to-head against Lula that the money no longer treats as a foregone conclusion.

Updated 4:05 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $2.5M markets read 12 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 65 days range 66% (61d ago) – 50% (19d ago) resolves in 3 days trending in today's news a coin flip → leaning yes 2 tier changes venues disagree 39.4pp
World

Russia Is Very Likely to Strike Kyiv This October

very likely (95%)

What had been a leaning-yes assessment is now a strong conviction: sustained Russian aerial pressure on the capital looks set to continue deep into autumn, while a ceasefire by year-end sits at just 12% and a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting remains improbable through 2027.

Updated 4:05 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $123K markets read 9 venue Polymarket grade A trending in today's news a coin flip → very likely venues agree
World

Sami Abu Shehadeh Is Very Likely to Remain on the Israeli Ballot

very unlikely (3%)

What had been a likely ban is now a near-certain non-event, but the broader election picture remains unsettled — Yashar leads seat projections at 54%, Likud is very likely to clear 20 seats, and neither major bloc has locked down the premiership, with Eizenkot still in a near-dead-heat for prime minister.

Updated 4:54 AM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $17K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade B likely → virtually impossible