U.S.odds favor Johnny C. Garcia

Johnny C. Garcia Holds a Narrow Lead in Texas's 35th District Race

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “TX-35 House winner?”

Johnny C. Garcia: leaning yes (62%)
Leading outcome Johnny C. Garcia 62% Leaning yes · C
24h move ▲ 2.0 pts Johnny C. Garcia
Traded 24h $58K $145K all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03

Where the money stands

Johnny C. Garcia 62% ▲ 2.0
Carlos De La Cruz 40% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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U.S. odds favor Democrats Sweep

Democrats Are Increasingly Favored to Sweep the 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep: leaning yes (66%)

A full Democratic sweep — House and Senate — has climbed from a low of 44% two months ago to its current peak, driven heavily by near-certain House odds and a competitive but live Senate map in Texas and Alaska; the shift is real but the market has crossed conviction rungs twice, so the lead is not locked in.

Updated 4:54 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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U.S. odds favor James Talarico (D)

James Talarico Edges Ahead as Democrats Favor Texas Senate Seat

James Talarico (D): leaning yes (64%)

A Democratic win in Texas would signal a broader Senate map expansion; read alongside Democratic leads in Ohio and a strong hold in Alaska, the money now favors a Senate pickup environment that extends well beyond safe territory.

Updated 6:17 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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U.S. wide open

Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Race at Just 21%

JD Vance: unlikely (21%)

No candidate commands real authority in this field: Vance holds the Republican nomination at roughly even odds but converts that to only a 21% general-election share, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff crowd the Democratic lane — a genuinely fragmented race with no prohibitive favorite on either side.

Updated 6:42 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $862K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 71 days range 25% (35d ago) – 20% (0d ago) venues disagree 29.9pp