U.S.odds favor John McGuire

John McGuire Holds a Lean in Virginia's 5th, but the Race Stays Competitive

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “VA-05 House winner?”

John McGuire: leaning yes (60%)
Leading outcome John McGuire 60% Leaning yes · Falling · B · tracked 22 days peak 79% (21d ago) · low 57% (3d ago) venues disagree 12.6pp
24h move ▼ 1.0 pts John McGuire
Traded 24h $85K $873K all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03

Where the money stands

John McGuire 60% ▼ 1.0
Tom Perriello 41% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 57 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 94 days range 94% (0d ago) – 86% (88d ago) resolves in 4 days 5 tier changes venues disagree 27.0pp
U.S. odds favor Democratic Party

Democrats Increasingly Favored to Retake the Senate

Democratic Party: leaning yes (64%)

With Ohio and Texas both leaning Democratic and the House already near-certain to flip, the money now prices a full Democratic sweep of Congress at 61% — a unified opposition government that would reshape the final two years of any Republican White House agenda.

Updated 5:34 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $130K venue Polymarket grade B tracked 93 days range 70% (0d ago) – 50% (68d ago) resolves in 4 days 2 tier changes
U.S. odds favor Byron Donalds (R)

Byron Donalds Leads Florida's Governor Race as David Jolly Closes In

Byron Donalds (R): leaning yes (64%)

Democrats are making credible inroads across the 2026 governor map — Ohio and Nevada lean their way, and Florida, once an 83% Republican lock just five days ago, has slipped to a narrower edge, suggesting a national environment that is shifting against Republican incumbency in swing states.

Updated 9:38 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $192K markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 45 days range 83% (5d ago) – 68% (0d ago) resolves in 4 days 3 tier changes venues agree