U.S.

Hormuz Traffic This Week Is All but Certain to Exceed 10 Transits

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18)”

virtually certain (98%)
Leading outcome Above 10 98% Virtually certain · A very likely → virtually certain
24h move ▲ 2.0 pts Above 10
Traded 24h $42K $56K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-20
Source markets 21 21 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Above 10 98% ▲ 2.0
Above 15 92% ▲ 1.0
Above 20 71% ▼ 2.0
Above 25 36% ▼ 1.0
Above 30 16% 0.0
Above 35 9% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 88%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 12 99% · +2.7 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 66% · +1.5 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 18% · +1.0 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 15 97% · +1.5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 14% · -2.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 83%
Saudi airspace closed by...? Polymarket · December 31 20% · +4.5 24h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 40% · +6.0 24h
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) Kalshi · Above 10 98%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 67%
Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate 31%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 22% · -1.0 24h
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) Kalshi · Above 10 98% · +2.0 24h
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) Kalshi · Above 4 75% · -8.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 6%
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 29% · +3.0 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 36%
The Money Talks — Saudi Arabia's Oil Lifeline Is Very Likely Back in Business by Halloween
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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