U.S.

Hormuz Peak Daily Traffic Is Likely to Exceed Four Transits This Week

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)”

likely (75%)
From our archive This story ran in an earlier edition of the paper. It stays on the record at this address; the front page and sections carry only current stories.
Leading outcome Above 4 75% Likely · A
24h move ▼ 8.0 pts Above 4
Traded 24h $39K $178K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-13 in 1 day
Source markets 21 21 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Above 4 75% ▼ 8.0
Above 5 62% ▲ 2.0
Above 6 25% ▲ 4.0
Above 8 3% ▼ 2.0
Above 10 2% ▼ 2.0
Above 14 2% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 88%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 12 99% · +2.7 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 66% · +1.5 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 18% · +1.0 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 15 97% · +1.5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 14% · -2.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 83%
Saudi airspace closed by...? Polymarket · December 31 20% · +4.5 24h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 40% · +6.0 24h
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) Kalshi · Above 10 98%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 67%
Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate 31%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 22% · -1.0 24h
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) Kalshi · Above 10 98% · +2.0 24h
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) Kalshi · Above 4 75% · -8.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 6%
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 29% · +3.0 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 36%
The Money Talks — Saudi Arabia's Oil Lifeline Is Very Likely Back in Business by Halloween
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. odds favor Democrats Sweep

Democrats Are Increasingly Favored to Sweep the 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep: leaning yes (66%)

A full Democratic sweep — House and Senate — has climbed from a low of 44% two months ago to its current peak, driven heavily by near-certain House odds and a competitive but live Senate map in Texas and Alaska; the shift is real but the market has crossed conviction rungs twice, so the lead is not locked in.

Updated 4:54 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.3M markets read 28 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 75 days range 66% (7d ago) – 44% (73d ago) 2 tier changes venues disagree 26.5pp
U.S. wide open

Jon Ossoff Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Presidential Field

Jon Ossoff: unlikely (17%)

No candidate commands enough support to be called a frontrunner in any meaningful sense — Ossoff's 17% plurality over Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom signals a party without a clear successor, while JD Vance consolidating as the likely Republican nominee gives Democrats an urgent reason to find one.

Updated 2:52 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $562K markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 75 days venues disagree 29.4pp
U.S. Xavier Becerra on track to win

Xavier Becerra Is Likely to Win the California Governor's Race

Xavier Becerra: very likely (94%)

The contest is effectively over before it begins — Becerra's dominance leaves the Republican field, led by a surging Steve Hilton, fighting for relevance rather than victory.

Updated 5:26 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $32K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 74 days