U.S.

Trump Criticizing Kevin Warsh Before 2027 Is a Coin-Flip Leaning No

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?”

probably not (40%)
Leading outcome Yes 40% Probably not · C
24h move ▲ 5.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $62K $88K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. odds favor Democrats Sweep

Democrats Now Lean Toward Sweeping Both Chambers in the Midterms

Democrats Sweep: leaning yes (55%)

What was a coin flip has tipped — the House looks very likely Democratic while the Senate remains genuinely competitive, with Texas and Ohio emerging as the pivotal races that will determine whether the sweep materializes.

Updated 10:51 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
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U.S.

Crypto Market Structure Legislation Is Very Unlikely to Pass This Year

very unlikely (6%)

Congress appears to have lost the votes it briefly seemed to have — what had been a plausible path to law is now a near-foreclosed one, with Senate support collapsing across every related market simultaneously. A volatile history of conviction shifts means this is not necessarily permanent, but the money is no longer treating passage as a live near-term scenario.

Updated 4:34 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
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traded today $3.2M markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 49 days range 33% (45d ago) – 5% (0d ago) unlikely → very unlikely 6 tier changes venues disagree 5.0pp
U.S. odds favor Democratic Party

Democrats Now Favor to Retake the Senate in 2026

Democratic Party: leaning yes (58%)

What had been a coin flip is now leaning Democratic — but this market has crossed conviction rungs twice, and a 58% reading is not a mandate; a single bad news cycle can flip it back. Republican hopes of holding their majority are diminished but far from extinguished.

Updated 10:56 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $68K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 48 days range 58% (0d ago) – 50% (23d ago) a coin flip → leaning yes 2 tier changes