U.S.wide open

Texas Leads a Wide-Open Field for 2026's Most Competitive Senate Race

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Closest Senate race in 2026?”

Texas: unlikely (17%)
Leading outcome Texas 17% Unlikely · C
24h move 0.0 pts Texas
Traded 24h $45K $311K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-03

Where the money stands

Texas 17% 0.0
Iowa 14% ▼ 1.0
Alaska 12% 0.0
Michigan 11% 0.0
Ohio 11% 0.0
Maine 9% ▲ 0.5
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Scott Jennings: probably not (37%)

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Democrats Are Likely to Retake the House — but the Senate Stays Republican

Democratic Party: likely (85%)

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Darline Graham Is Likely to Win South Carolina's Republican Senate Primary

Darline Graham: likely (86%)

The seat itself is almost certain to stay Republican, making Graham's primary victory the effective election — Ralph Norman's modest surge suggests some residual doubt, but the race is not genuinely open.

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