Peltola Leads Alaska's 2026 Senate Race but Her Grip Is Slipping
Source: Kalshi market “Alaska Senate winner? (Person)”
Mary Peltola: leaning yes (74%)
Leading outcome
Mary Peltola 74%
Leaning yes · Rising · B · tracked 77 days
peak 78% (42d ago) · low 57% (76d ago)
2 tier changes over tracking period
venues disagree 12.8pp
24h move
▲
3.0 pts
Mary Peltola
Traded 24h
$160K
$1.1M all time
Resolves by
2027-11-03
Source markets
148
148 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Mary Peltola
74%
▲
3.0
Dan Sullivan
28%
▼
3.0
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
1%
0.0
Gerald Heikes
1%
0.0
Ann Diener
0%
0.0
Richard Grayson
0%
0.0
Source markets for this story
Who will control the House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 98% · +4.2 24h
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 82% · +10.0 24h
Florida Governor winner?
Kalshi · Byron Donalds 95% · +29.9 24h
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 88% · +14.0 24h
Who will control the Senate?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 90% · +16.0 24h
Texas Governor winner?
Kalshi · Greg Abbott 62%
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 98% · +4.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 88% · +11.0 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 90% · +14.0 24h
California Governor winner? (Person)
Kalshi · Xavier Becerra 98% · +0.7 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 82% · +10.0 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · November 2 100% · +52.7 24h
Florida Senate winner?
Kalshi · Ashley Moody 92% · +5.8 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Below 45 24% · +9.0 24h
Ohio Governor winner?
Kalshi · Amy Acton 92% · +9.5 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 78% · +19.0 24h
Iowa Senate winner?
Kalshi · Josh Turek 69% · +17.0 24h
Florida Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Byron Donalds (R) 96% · +30.4 24h
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 77% · +5.0 24h
New York Governor winner?
Kalshi · Kathy Hochul 98% · +1.3 24h
California Governor winner?
Kalshi · Xavier Becerra 98% · +0.8 24h
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 90% · +20.0 24h
Georgia Governor winner?
Kalshi · Keisha Lance Bottoms 88% · +19.0 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 90% · +11.0 24h
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Adam Hamilton 75% · +11.0 24h
Minnesota Senate winner?
Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 94% · +2.7 24h
Texas Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Greg Abbott (R) 58% · -2.6 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 95% · -0.6 24h
Nevada Governor winner?
Kalshi · Aaron Ford 88% · +14.0 24h
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Kalshi · Karen Bass 76% · +18.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026?
Kalshi · Yes 92% · +5.9 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 10 to 12% 31% · +6.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · ≤47 74% · +18.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Democratic party 71%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)
Kalshi · Below 53 22% · -20.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 31% · -24.4 24h
Texas Governor-Senate combo
Kalshi · Greg Abbott and James Talarico win 52% · +10.0 24h
Iowa Governor winner?
Kalshi · Rob Sand 93% · +7.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 88% · +10.0 24h
Florida Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Ashley Moody (R) 94% · +6.8 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 76% · +3.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo
Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 73% · +7.0 24h
TX-23 House winner?
Kalshi · Brandon Herrera 58% · +3.0 24h
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Adam Hamilton (D) 76% · +14.0 24h
Arizona Governor winner?
Kalshi · Katie Hobbs 93% · +0.9 24h
Louisiana Senate winner?
Kalshi · Julia Letlow 80% · -8.0 24h
IN-05 House winner?
Kalshi · J.D. Ford 87% · +67.0 24h
NY-17 House winner?
Kalshi · Cait Conley 62% · +6.0 24h
Mississippi Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 84% · -1.5 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Annie Andrews (D) 57% · +25.5 24h
VA-05 House winner?
Kalshi · John McGuire 64%
Montana Senate winner?
Kalshi · Kurt Alme 92% · +1.5 24h
Michigan Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · El-Sayed, 1+ pts 87% · +10.0 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 60% · -11.0 24h
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Kalshi · Yes 88% · +20.0 24h
California Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 99%
Closest Senate race in 2026?
Kalshi · Iowa 28% · +12.0 24h
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Amy Acton (D) 94% · +11.0 24h
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 94% · +2.0 24h
Alabama Governor winner?
Kalshi · Tommy Tuberville 92% · -1.8 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional)
Kalshi · At least 46 99% · +3.0 24h
Texas Senate: margin of victory
Kalshi · James Talarico, 2-4% 26% · +6.0 24h
Oregon Governor winner?
Kalshi · Tina Kotek 83% · +2.0 24h
Iowa Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Josh Turek (D) 74% · +23.5 24h
KY-06 House winner?
Kalshi · Zach Dembo 92% · +34.9 24h
TX-15 House winner?
Kalshi · Bobby Pulido 92% · +4.2 24h
Kansas Governor winner?
Kalshi · Ty Masterson 62% · -5.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Mary Peltola 76% · +3.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 91% · +19.5 24h
Wisconsin Governor winner?
Kalshi · David Crowley 88% · +4.0 24h
Arkansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Tom Cotton 94% · -1.5 24h
NJ-02 House winner?
Kalshi · Zack Mullock 53% · +22.0 24h
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
Kalshi · Yes 30% · +8.0 24h
Michigan Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Jocelyn Benson (D) 98% · +2.8 24h
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) 88% · +12.0 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Ken Paxton, 1+ pts 23% · -3.0 24h
New York Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Kathy Hochul (D) 99% · +1.9 24h
VA-01 House winner?
Kalshi · Shannon Taylor 65% · +1.0 24h
Oklahoma Governor winner?
Kalshi · Mike Mazzei 90%
Georgia Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Jon Ossoff (D) 100% · +2.4 24h
PA-01 House winner?
Kalshi · Bob Harvie 77% · +22.0 24h
Georgia Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 91% · +21.5 24h
VA-02 House winner?
Kalshi · Elaine Luria 86% · -6.0 24h
Iowa Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Rob Sand (D) 92% · +5.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? (Person)
Kalshi · Mary Peltola 74% · +3.0 24h
NV-02 House winner?
Kalshi · Teresa Benitez-Thompson 69% · +36.0 24h
NC-09 House winner?
Kalshi · Richard Hudson 66%
Texas Governor margin of victory
Kalshi · Abbott, 1.5+ pts 73% · +16.0 24h
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Polymarket · Karen Bass 74% · +18.0 24h
Florida Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Moody, 1+ pts 77% · -5.0 24h
NC-13 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Paul Barringer (D) 78% · +45.0 24h
Arizona Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Katie Hobbs (D) 95% · +1.5 24h
FL-25 House winner?
Kalshi · Jared Moskowitz 96% · +15.0 24h
NC-03 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Raymond Smith Jr. (D) 90% · +50.8 24h
Kansas Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Ty Masterson (R) 60% · -8.5 24h
Louisiana Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Julia Letlow (R) 82% · -4.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 96% · +4.7 24h
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Talarico 0-3% 32% · +8.5 24h
Montana Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Kurt Alme (R) 92% · +0.5 24h
NJ-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jeff Van Drew (R) 52% · -17.5 24h
Massachusetts Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Maura Healey (D) 99% · +1.0 24h
Vermont Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Phil Scott (R) 84% · +12.5 24h
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · Below 190 66% · +22.0 24h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 26% · +1.5 24h
NY-17 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Cait Conley (D) 62% · +5.0 24h
Tennessee Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Marsha Blackburn (R) 92% · -2.4 24h
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)
Polymarket · 48+ 26% · -17.0 24h
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · David Crowley (D) 89% · +3.5 24h
Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Josh Shapiro (D) 100% · +0.9 24h
Alaska Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 89% · +2.3 24h
VA-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · John McGuire (R) 63% · +0.5 24h
FL-13 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Anna Paulina Luna (R) 96% · +31.4 24h
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
Polymarket · ≤46 and ≤192 55% · +21.4 24h
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Polymarket · Yes 100%
TX-23 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Brandon Herrera (R) 57% · +3.0 24h
KY-06 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Zach Dembo (D) 90% · +35.0 24h
FL-22 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Pia Dandiya (D) 97% · +22.8 24h
NC-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Richard Hudson (R) 64% · -3.0 24h
Senate Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine
Polymarket · Dems sweep 76% · +14.5 24h
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 88% · +22.8 24h
Kentucky Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Andy Barr (R) 97% · +0.9 24h
Texas Senate and Governor Combo
Polymarket · Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 49% · +9.0 24h
VA-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Shannon Taylor (D) 64% · -1.0 24h
Oklahoma Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Mike Mazzei (R) 90% · -1.0 24h
ME-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Matthew Dunlap (D) 71% · +29.0 24h
PA-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Bob Harvie (D) 78% · +22.5 24h
AL-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Shomari Figures (D) 61% · +13.5 24h
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Democrats 10-12% 32% · +7.0 24h
Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 94% · +6.0 24h
Massachusetts Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Ed Markey (D) 99%
FL-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Darren Soto (D) 88% · +51.5 24h
Minnesota Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Amy Klobuchar (D) 98% · +0.5 24h
FL-14 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Kathy Castor (D) 99% · +21.6 24h
Oregon Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Tina Kotek (D) 84%
Florida Governor Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Donalds 0-3% 64% · +38.5 24h
FL-07 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Ryan Elijah (R) 64% · +0.5 24h
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 52% · +18.0 24h
South Carolina Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Alan Wilson (R) 95% · -0.9 24h
Arkansas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Tom Cotton (R) 94% · -1.9 24h
SC-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Nancy Lacore (D) 74% · +27.0 24h
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 88% · +19.5 24h
Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Moody 0-3% 46% · +20.8 24h
TN-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Brent Taylor (R) 84% · +0.5 24h
OK-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Stephanie Bice (R) 84% · -2.5 24h
OH-10 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 64% · +34.5 24h
Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · El-Sayed 3-6% 36% · +14.0 24h
AZ-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Amish Shah (D) 80% · +2.0 24h
New Mexico Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Deb Haaland (D) 97% · +1.8 24h
Get an alert when Us Midterms 2026 House moves.
The Front Page, every morning — what the markets believe about the world.