U.S.David Crowley on track to win

David Crowley Likely Wins Wisconsin's Governorship, but the Race Has Shifted Before

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Wisconsin Governor winner?”

David Crowley: likely (82%)
Resolved The money put Republican party at 52% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome David Crowley 82% Likely · Rising · C · tracked 46 days peak 81% · low 52% (45d ago) 6 tier changes over tracking period
24h move 0.0 pts David Crowley
Traded 24h $52K $1.2M all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03

Where the money stands

David Crowley 82% 0.0
Tom Tiffany 19% ▼ 1.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. odds favor Democrats Sweep

Democrats Are Increasingly Favored to Sweep the 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep: leaning yes (60%)

A full Democratic takeover of both chambers is now the modal outcome, having climbed from 44% just seven weeks ago to a new peak today — but the Senate remains the soft underbelly, priced separately at only 56-60%, meaning the sweep depends on a chamber that is far from decided.

Updated 10:57 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $175K markets read 9 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 51 days range 60% (1d ago) – 44% (49d ago) 2 tier changes venues disagree 31.5pp
U.S. odds favor James Talarico (D)

James Talarico Holds a Narrow Edge Over Ken Paxton in Texas Senate Race

James Talarico (D): leaning yes (57%)

A Democratic pickup in Texas remains a real but fragile possibility — the race has only just touched its highest odds and the margin over Paxton is thin enough that a single news cycle could flip it.

Updated 3:49 AM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $20K markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 49 days range 57% (0d ago) – 50% (4d ago)
U.S. wide open

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Race

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: unlikely (16%)

A 16% plurality in a fractured field is a lead by default, not dominance — JD Vance holds a narrow edge for the Republican nomination at 51%, meaning both parties face genuinely open contests. The 2028 general election is shaping up as a matchup nobody can yet name with confidence.

Updated 2:57 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $1.1M markets read 5 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 51 days venues disagree 29.2pp