U.S.Greg Abbott on track to win

Greg Abbott Is Likely to Hold the Texas Governorship

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Texas Governor winner?”

Greg Abbott: likely (79%)
Resolved The money put Greg Abbott at 88% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Greg Abbott 79% Likely · Stable · B · tracked 52 days peak 88% (46d ago) · low 76% (2d ago) venues disagree 31.5pp
24h move ▲ 1.0 pts Greg Abbott
Traded 24h $53K $1.0M all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03
Source markets 19 19 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Greg Abbott 79% ▲ 1.0
Gina Hinojosa 23% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 90% · +0.5 24h
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 59%
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 92% · +2.0 24h
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 60% · +2.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Below 193 32% · -1.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 60%
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 60% · -1.0 24h
Texas Governor winner? Kalshi · Greg Abbott 79% · +1.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 55%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 60%
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) 61% · +0.5 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 60% · +1.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 56% · +1.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 24%
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 69%
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 66% · +1.0 24h
Florida Governor winner? Kalshi · Byron Donalds 80%
Alaska Senate winner? Kalshi · Democratic party 72% · +2.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 36% · +1.0 24h
The Money Talks — Democrats Are Probably About to Run the Table
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

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Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
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His grip on the nomination is real but fragile — a 53% plurality with Rubio at 17% and a general-election market pricing him at just 25% suggests the party sees him as the default heir, not a commanding frontrunner.

Updated 12:34 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $3.2M markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 53 days range 53% (17d ago) – 43% (50d ago) 3 tier changes venues disagree 29.2pp
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Alito Retirement Increasingly Expected by Mid-2027

probably not (38%)

A sharp single-day move suggests new information or sentiment is pulling retirement expectations forward, but at 38% the outcome remains genuinely uncertain — enough to keep a Republican-controlled confirmation window in play without locking it in.

Updated 5:21 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $21K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 48 days range 42% (0d ago) – 28% (41d ago)