U.S.Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Which party will win the U.S. House?”

Democratic Party: very likely (90%)
Resolved The money put Democratic Party at 84% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Democratic Party 90% Very likely · Stable · B · tracked 53 days peak 89% · low 83% (44d ago) likely → very likely venues disagree 30.5pp
24h move ▲ 1.5 pts Democratic Party
Traded 24h $262K $33.5M all time
Resolves by 2027-02-01
Source markets 10 10 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Democratic Party 90% ▲ 1.5
Republican Party 10% ▼ 0.5

Source markets for this story

Tabilo vs Jodar Kalshi · Rafael Jodar 61%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 59%
Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 90% · +1.5 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 92% · +2.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 60% · +1.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Below 193 30% · -3.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 36% · +2.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 55%
South Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 86%
North Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Roy Cooper (D) 94% · +1.0 24h
The Money Talks — The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 10 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 53 days range 90% (0d ago) – 86% (47d ago) trending in today's news 5 tier changes venues disagree 30.5pp
U.S. odds favor Democratic Party

Democrats Now Favor to Retake the Senate in 2026

Democratic Party: leaning yes (58%)

What had been a coin flip is now leaning Democratic — but this market has crossed conviction rungs twice, and a 58% reading is not a mandate; a single bad news cycle can flip it back. Republican hopes of holding their majority are diminished but far from extinguished.

Updated 10:56 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $68K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 52 days range 60% (0d ago) – 50% (27d ago) trending in today's news 2 tier changes
U.S. odds favor James Talarico

James Talarico Edges Ahead of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate Race

James Talarico: leaning yes (57%)

A Democratic pickup in Texas would rewrite the map of 2026 — and read alongside Democratic leads in Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio, the broader Senate picture increasingly favors a blue wave, with a combined Democratic House and Senate now priced above 58%.

Updated 6:50 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $692K venue Kalshi grade C tracked 53 days range 59% (0d ago) – 50% (10d ago) 8 tier changes