U.S.Guilherme Derrite on track to win

Guilherme Derrite Is Now Likely to Lead the São Paulo Senate Race

By Priced In News Staff

Guilherme Derrite: likely (81%)

Leading outcome Guilherme Derrite 81% Likely · Rising · B · tracked 5 days leaning yes → likely venues disagree 32.5pp

24h move ▲ 17.5 pts Guilherme Derrite

Traded 24h $28K $164K all time

Resolves by 2026-10-05 in 1 day

Where the money stands

Guilherme Derrite 81% ▲ 17.5

André do Prado 13% ▼ 15.0

Marina Silva 5% ▼ 1.8

Simone Tebet 3% ▼ 2.7

Salles 0% 0.1

Dra. Eliana Ferreira 0% 0.0

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 64% · +5.9 24h

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 59% · -15.5 24h

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory Polymarket · Lula da Silva <5% 51% · -16.5 24h

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner Polymarket · Lula 60% · -14.0 24h

Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi · Flávio Bolsonaro 66% · +8.0 24h

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? Polymarket · Flavio Bolsonaro 98% · -1.4 24h

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Polymarket · Renan Santos 57% · -2.0 24h

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share? Polymarket · 2-4% 59% · +11.0 24h

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? Polymarket · Yes 8% · +4.1 24h

Brazil presidential election: first round winner? Kalshi · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 64% · -11.0 24h

Bahia Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Jerônimo Rodrigues 68% · +4.5 24h

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share? Polymarket · 39%+ 94% · +4.5 24h

São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place Polymarket · Guilherme Derrite 81% · +17.5 24h

Ceará Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Elmano de Freitas 68% · +0.5 24h

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Eduardo Paes 79% · +1.7 24h

Paraná Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Sergio Moro 72% · +0.5 24h

Pernambuco Governor Election Winner Polymarket · João Campos 51% · -3.5 24h

Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place Polymarket · Bia Kicis 84% · -1.1 24h

Lula or Bolsonaro favored on...? Polymarket · October 5 13% · -0.5 24h

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share? Polymarket · 44%+ 77% · +9.5 24h

Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Luciano Zucco 88% · +1.5 24h