U.S.Rui Costa on track to win

Rui Costa Is Likely to Win Bahia's Senate Race Outright

Source: Polymarket market “Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place”

Rui Costa: likely (88%)
Leading outcome Rui Costa 88% Likely · B very likely → likely venues disagree 39.4pp
24h move ▲ 3.0 pts Rui Costa
Traded 24h $23K $68K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-05 in 3 days
Source markets 13 13 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Rui Costa 88% ▲ 3.0
Jaques Wagner 7% ▼ 4.9
Angelo Coronel 1% 0.1
João Roma 0% ▼ 2.2
Carlos Sodré 0% 0.0
Gregorio Gould 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 55% · -6.5 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Polymarket · Renan Santos 62% · +15.0 24h
Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi · Flávio Bolsonaro 56% · -4.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 74% · +3.0 24h
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? Polymarket · Flavio Bolsonaro 99% · +0.9 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner Polymarket · Lula 73% · +3.5 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory Polymarket · Lula da Silva <5% 62% · +4.0 24h
"Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office Polymarket · 16-19m 82% · +9.0 24h
Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place Polymarket · Rui Costa 88% · +3.0 24h
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