Rui Costa Is Likely to Win Bahia's Senate Race Outright
Source: Polymarket market “Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place”
Rui Costa: likely (88%)
Leading outcome
Rui Costa 88%
Likely · B
very likely → likely
venues disagree 39.4pp
24h move
▲
3.0 pts
Rui Costa
Traded 24h
$23K
$68K all time
Resolves by
2026-10-05
in 3 days
Source markets
13
13 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Rui Costa
88%
▲
3.0
Jaques Wagner
7%
▼
4.9
Angelo Coronel
1%
0.1
João Roma
0%
▼
2.2
Carlos Sodré
0%
0.0
Gregorio Gould
0%
0.0
Source markets for this story
Brazil Presidential Election
Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 55% · -6.5 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Polymarket · Renan Santos 62% · +15.0 24h
Brazil Presidential election winner?
Kalshi · Flávio Bolsonaro 56% · -4.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 74% · +3.0 24h
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Polymarket · Flavio Bolsonaro 99% · +0.9 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
Polymarket · Lula 73% · +3.5 24h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
Polymarket · Yes 5% · +2.2 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?
Polymarket · 2-4% 47% · +3.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?
Polymarket · 39%+ 88% · -1.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Lula da Silva <5% 62% · +4.0 24h
"Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office
Polymarket · 16-19m 82% · +9.0 24h
Bahia Senate Election: 1st Place
Polymarket · Rui Costa 88% · +3.0 24h
Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?
Polymarket · Yes 2% · -97.2 24h
The Money Talks —
Flávio Bolsonaro Probably Wins in 2026 — and the Race Just Shifted Beneath Lula's Feet
Get an alert when Brazil Presidential Election moves.
The Front Page, every morning — what the markets believe about the world.