A Hormuz Management Deal Is Slipping Away — and Normal Traffic Looks Stuck
Source: Polymarket market “Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?”
probably not (38%)
Leading outcome
December 31 38%
Probably not · Falling · A · tracked 64 days
peak 90% (63d ago) · low 16% (6d ago)
leaning yes → probably not
17 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
▼
26.5 pts
December 31
Traded 24h
$55K
$2.9M all time
Resolves by
2026-11-01
Source markets
19
19 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
December 31
38%
▼
26.5
November 30
30%
▼
4.0
October 31
20%
▲
4.0
Source markets for this story
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Polymarket · March 31 68% · -4.0 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · October 5 100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 16%
US-Iran nuclear deal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2028 37% · +2.0 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · October 9 99% · +0.9 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 18% · +1.0 24h
Iran leader end of 2026?
Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 88%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Polymarket · December 31 14% · +2.0 24h
Iran leadership change by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 22%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 68% · +4.0 24h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Polymarket · December 31 38% · -26.5 24h
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)
Kalshi · Above 10 97% · +2.0 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Polymarket · December 31 6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Polymarket · Yes 2% · -0.6 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Polymarket · Yes 10%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Polymarket · December 31 36% · -2.0 24h
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
Polymarket · December 31, 2026 42% · -3.0 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
Polymarket · Yes 1%
The Money Talks —
The US-Iran Diplomatic Calendar Probably Has Room for One More Meeting
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