U.S.

Casey Askar Surges to the Front of a Fragmented FL-22 Republican Primary

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “FL-22 Republican Primary Winner”

virtually certain (100%)
Leading outcome Casey Askar 100% Virtually certain · Rising · B · tracked 29 days peak 100% (26d ago) · low 30% (28d ago) probably not → virtually certain
24h move ▲ 72.1 pts Casey Askar
Traded 24h $28K $119K all time
Resolves by 2026-08-18
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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U.S.

Crypto Market Structure Law Now Leans Toward Passage Before 2028

leaning yes (63%)

What was a coin flip two days ago has tipped to leaning yes — momentum across every timing window surged in lockstep, suggesting a legislative catalyst rather than noise. A 2026 signing remains a minority bet at 28%, so the money is pricing passage as likely but not imminent.

Updated 3:46 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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traded today $620K markets read 2 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 47 days range 67% (20d ago) – 38% (2d ago) probably not → leaning yes 7 tier changes
U.S. leaning Democratic Party

The 2026 Senate Is a True Dead Heat

Democratic Party: a coin flip (50%)

Democrats have flipped to a nominal edge on Senate control, but at a coin-flip spread this thin, the House picture tells the real story — a Democratic House looks likely, making a full Democratic sweep of Congress the most probable single outcome heading into 2027.

Updated 5:13 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $42K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 46 days range 56% (40d ago) – 50% (21d ago) trending in today's news venues agree
U.S. leaning James Talarico (D)

James Talarico Edges Ahead in Texas Senate Race

James Talarico (D): a coin flip (52%)

A Democratic lean in Texas — even a razor-thin one — would have been unthinkable in recent cycles; that it registers at all reflects how badly Ken Paxton's candidacy has fractured the Republican coalition in a state the party has owned for decades.

Updated 8:25 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $43K markets read 9 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 45 days