World

The US Will Not Withdraw from NATO Before 2027

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will US withdraw from NATO by...?”

very unlikely (3%)
Leading outcome December 31 3% Very unlikely · C
24h move 0.1 pts December 31
Traded 24h $30K $6.3M all time
Resolves by 2026-12-31

Where the money stands

December 31 3% 0.1
August 31 0% 0.3
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Iran's Blockade Likely Ends This Year, but the Strait Stays Closed

likely (85%)

A ceasefire is effectively done — but the economic chokehold on Hormuz persists, suggesting Washington and Tehran have stopped the shooting without resolving the underlying standoff. The regime looks stable and Mojtaba Khamenei poised to inherit power, meaning this is a pause, not a resolution.

Updated 2:43 PM ET ▼ down overnight
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traded today $1.3M markets read 36 venue Polymarket grade A
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Hamas Disarmament by Year-End Is a Dead Heat

a coin flip (46%)

This is the hardest question in the conflict and the market has no answer — a genuine 50-50 reflects either a negotiation poised on a knife-edge or a market too uncertain to price it. Either way, no outcome is foreordained.

Updated 2:43 PM ET ▼ drifting down for days
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traded today $27K venue Polymarket grade C
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Houthis Likely to Strike Shipping Again This Month

very unlikely (10%)

The threat is diffuse, not concentrated — no single date commands conviction, and the flat daily moves suggest no intelligence is leaking about a specific imminent attack. What the spread of probabilities across August dates says is that resumed targeting is a persistent background condition, not a one-off event.

Updated 8:17 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $29K venue Polymarket grade C