World

US-Turkey CAATSA Sanctions Relief Is a Dead Heat for 2026

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?”

a coin flip (45%)
Leading outcome December 31 45% A coin flip · D
24h move ▼ 7.5 pts December 31
Traded 24h $16K $39K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-31

Where the money stands

December 31 45% ▼ 7.5
October 31 28% ▼ 5.5
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from World

World

Hormuz Stays Closed, But a US-Iran Framework Holds Through Year-End

leaning yes (72%)

The ceasefire is solid and the MOU survives, but Hormuz traffic remains virtually shut — the deal on paper has not translated into open water. Qatar's sudden jump into the attendee picture signals the diplomatic architecture is widening, even as a final nuclear agreement remains a long shot at 18%.

Updated 6:05 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $81K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade C
World odds favor No Meeting by September 30

US-Iran Talks Are Roughly a Coin Flip to Stall Out Before October

No Meeting by September 30: leaning yes (55%)

The near-deadlock between 'no meeting' and 'somewhere' reflects genuine uncertainty about whether diplomatic contact survives through September — with Pakistan quietly emerging as the marginal venue pick if talks do resume.

Updated 2:12 AM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $21K markets read 25 venue Polymarket grade A
World odds favor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Lula Holds a Clear Lead in Brazil's Presidential Race

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: leaning yes (66%)

Flávio Bolsonaro is consolidating the opposition lane — second place looks his to lose — but the field remains too fragmented to threaten Lula's front-runner position heading into October.

Updated 6:54 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $919K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade A