World

Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory”

virtually certain (100%)
From our archive This story ran in an earlier edition of the paper. It stays on the record at this address; the front page and sections carry only current stories.
Leading outcome Farage 20-40% 100% Virtually certain · Rising · C · tracked 45 days peak 64% (32d ago) · low 47% (44d ago) unlikely → virtually certain
24h move ▲ 87.5 pts Farage 20-40%
Traded 24h $123K $269K all time
Resolves by 2026-08-13
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Israel and Lebanon Are Virtually Certain to Hold Diplomatic Talks Before September 25

virtually certain (99%)

What had been likely is now virtually certain — a formal diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon appears locked in, with every near-term deadline priced above 95%. The political ground beneath it remains unstable: Netanyahu's hold on power is a coin flip, and Eizenkot's path to replace him is only marginally favored, meaning the diplomatic channel could outlast the government that opened it.

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United Russia Is Likely to Dominate the Coming Parliamentary Election

United Russia (ER): likely (76%)

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US-Iran Diplomatic Talks This Year Remain an Open Question

probably not (30%)

A ceasefire is all but certain, but who sits across the table — and whether formal talks happen at all — is genuinely unresolved; with Hormuz still disrupted and blockade-end odds at 61%, the ceasefire is holding without producing real diplomacy.

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