World

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?”

virtually impossible (0%)
Leading outcome August 31 0% Virtually impossible · Stable · D · tracked 47 days peak 16% (40d ago) · low 0% (7d ago) 3 tier changes over tracking period
24h move 0.0 pts August 31
Traded 24h $11K $25.2M all time
Resolves by 2026-09-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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A US-Iran Ceasefire Is Very Likely — but the Strait Stays Shut

very likely (97%)

The guns are going quiet faster than anyone expected, but the economic chokehold endures: with Hormuz normalization priced at just 18% by year-end and the Saudi pipeline restart in doubt, a pause in hostilities looks far more durable than the conditions that triggered them.

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Israel and Lebanon Are Likely to Meet Diplomatically by September 30

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The window is compressing fast — a surge in near-term contracts suggests diplomats may be closer to a date than the calendar implies, but a market that has crossed conviction rungs eight times warns against reading this as done.

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United Russia Is Likely to Dominate the Coming Parliamentary Election

United Russia (ER): likely (76%)

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Updated 3:50 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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traded today $304K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 47 days range 80% (0d ago) – 60% (45d ago) resolves in 6 days trending in today's news