World

A U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Endorsed by the UN This Year Is Likely Out of Reach

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?”

probably not (26%)
Leading outcome Yes 26% Probably not · D
24h move ▼ 8.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $11K $136K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-31
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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World

Iran's Blockade Likely Ends This Year, but the Strait Stays Closed

likely (85%)

A ceasefire is effectively done — but the economic chokehold on Hormuz persists, suggesting Washington and Tehran have stopped the shooting without resolving the underlying standoff. The regime looks stable and Mojtaba Khamenei poised to inherit power, meaning this is a pause, not a resolution.

Updated 2:43 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.3M markets read 36 venue Polymarket grade A
World

Hamas Disarmament by Year-End Is a Dead Heat

a coin flip (46%)

This is the hardest question in the conflict and the market has no answer — a genuine 50-50 reflects either a negotiation poised on a knife-edge or a market too uncertain to price it. Either way, no outcome is foreordained.

Updated 2:43 PM ET ▼ drifting down for days
the numbers
traded today $27K venue Polymarket grade C trending in today's news
World leaning Gadi Eizenkot

Eizenkot Holds a Narrow Lead to Become Israel's Next Prime Minister

Gadi Eizenkot: a coin flip (52%)

A dead-heat signal in a high-attention race: Eizenkot's 52% edge over Netanyahu's 32% is real but razor-thin, and Lieberman's quiet uptick suggests the field hasn't fully consolidated — Israel's post-war political order remains genuinely unsettled.

Updated 4:35 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $22K venue Polymarket grade C trending in today's news