World

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?”

virtually impossible (0%)
Leading outcome July 31 0% Virtually impossible · Falling · tracked 49 days peak 76% (48d ago) · low 0% (44d ago) 2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move 0.1 pts July 31
Traded 24h $105K $2.4M all time
Resolves by 2026-07-31
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Israel and Lebanon Are Virtually Certain to Meet Diplomatically Before September's End

virtually certain (99%)

What had been a likely diplomatic encounter is now virtually certain — a remarkable shift for two countries technically still in a state of war. The related markets reinforce a picture of accelerating normalization: airspace closure odds sit at 98%, suggesting the logistics of formal contact are already being managed, even as Netanyahu's own political survival remains a genuine open question at 54%.

Updated 7:50 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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Xi Jinping Is Very Likely to Visit the US Before 2027

very likely (95%)

The when is sharpening: September 23 is surging as a specific target date even as the broad year-end contract eases slightly from its peak. A visit is nearly certain; the market is now really a debate about timing, not whether.

Updated 7:01 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $27K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 48 days range 98% (7d ago) – 91% (47d ago) 2 tier changes
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US-Iran Diplomatic Talks This Year Remain an Open Question

probably not (30%)

A ceasefire is all but certain, but who sits across the table — and whether formal talks happen at all — is genuinely unresolved; with Hormuz still disrupted and blockade-end odds at 61%, the ceasefire is holding without producing real diplomacy.

Updated 8:28 AM ET ▼ down overnight
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traded today $52K markets read 23 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 35 days range 78% (33d ago) – 24% (6d ago) 10 tier changes