World

Russia Will Not Reach Havrylivka by September

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?”

very unlikely (5%)
Leading outcome September 30 5% Very unlikely · C
24h move ▼ 1.5 pts September 30
Traded 24h $27K $142K all time
Resolves by 2026-09-30
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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World

Iran Likely Strikes an Arab Country This Week as Nuclear Talks Collapse

likely (78%)

The negotiating track is functionally dead — extension odds are near zero, a final deal sits at 11%, and Hormuz normalization by September is priced at 8%. What remains is a military confrontation posture, with an Arab-country strike the most immediate expression of it.

Updated 5:57 PM ET ▼ down overnight
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World odds favor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Lula Holds a Clear Lead in Brazil's Presidential Race

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: leaning yes (66%)

Flávio Bolsonaro is consolidating the opposition lane — second place looks his to lose — but the field remains too fragmented to threaten Lula's front-runner position heading into October.

Updated 6:54 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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World leaning Gadi Eizenkot

Eizenkot Edges Ahead in Israel's Post-Election Leadership Race

Gadi Eizenkot: leaning yes (55%)

A leadership transition in Israel increasingly runs through the center-left — Netanyahu's grip on the post-war political order is loosening, with his odds falling as Eizenkot consolidates a narrow but real advantage in a high-attention, high-stakes succession contest.

Updated 3:46 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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traded today $47K venue Polymarket grade C trending in today's news