U.S.odds favor Jeff Van Drew (R)

Van Drew Still Favored in NJ-02, but His Lead Has Visibly Softened

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “NJ-02 House Election Winner”

Jeff Van Drew (R): leaning yes (70%)
Leading outcome Jeff Van Drew (R) 70% Leaning yes · Falling · B · tracked 6 days peak 80% (4d ago) · low 70% (2d ago) venues disagree 12.6pp
24h move ▲ 3.0 pts Jeff Van Drew (R)
Traded 24h $24K $198K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04 in 5 days

Where the money stands

Jeff Van Drew (R) 70% ▲ 3.0
Zack Mullock (D) 30% ▼ 3.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 71 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 93 days range 94% (26d ago) – 86% (87d ago) resolves in 5 days 5 tier changes venues disagree 27.0pp
U.S. wide open

JD Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Field at a Thin 19%

JD Vance: unlikely (19%)

A plurality this slim is a statement of disorder, not dominance — Vance holds the Republican nomination at roughly even odds but converts that into only a 19% general-election chance, while Marco Rubio's quiet rise and a fractured Democratic field mean 2028 has no front-runner in any meaningful sense.

Updated 8:53 AM ET ▼ drifting down for days
the numbers
traded today $244K markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 93 days range 25% (57d ago) – 17% (0d ago) trending in today's news venues disagree 20.9pp
U.S. odds favor Greg Abbott (R)

Greg Abbott Leads in Texas but His Advantage Has Sharply Narrowed

Greg Abbott (R): leaning yes (61%)

Texas no longer looks like a safe hold: Abbott has fallen from 86% just two months ago to 61% today, a compression that — read alongside Democrats leading in Ohio at 81-82% and Iowa at 85% — suggests a broader 2026 gubernatorial environment that is shifting toward Democrats even in states Republicans expect to defend easily.

Updated 10:35 PM ET ▼ drifting down for days
the numbers
traded today $315K markets read 17 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 65 days range 86% (64d ago) – 62% (1d ago) resolves in 5 days trending in today's news 3 tier changes venues agree