U.S.Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Virtual Locks to Hold CA-06

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “CA-06 House Election Winner”

Democratic Party: very likely (96%)
Leading outcome Democratic Party 96% Very likely · B venues disagree 26.5pp
24h move ▲ 1.4 pts Democratic Party
Traded 24h $27K $90K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04
Source markets 30 30 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Democratic Party 96% ▲ 1.4
Republican Party 1% 0.2

Source markets for this story

Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 90%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 62%
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 62% · +1.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 62%
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 90%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 64%
South Carolina Senate winner? Kalshi · Darline Graham 85% · -1.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 63%
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 68%
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 62%
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 87% · +1.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 47%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 35% · -1.0 24h
New Hampshire Senate winner? Kalshi · Chris Pappas 90%
Montana Senate winner? Kalshi · Kurt Alme 91%
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 57%
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 48 16% · +2.0 24h
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 57%
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 65% · +2.0 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 70% · +1.0 24h
Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi · Roger Marshall 65% · +1.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 76% · -0.7 24h
AL-02 House winner? Kalshi · Rhett Marques 74% · +1.0 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 100% · +1.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 80% · +2.0 24h
MN-05 House winner? Kalshi · Ilhan Omar 94%
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 66% · +4.0 24h
Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo Polymarket · Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems 36% · -1.0 24h
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Chris Pappas (D) 90% · +2.0 24h
CA-06 House Election Winner Polymarket · Democratic Party 96% · +1.4 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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virtually certain (99%)

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Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

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Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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J.D. Vance: unlikely (20%)

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Updated 9:50 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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