World

A US-China Military Clash Before 2027 Remains a Remote Risk

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “US x China Military clash before 2027?”

very unlikely (4%)
Leading outcome Yes 4% Very unlikely · D
24h move 0.1 pts Yes
Traded 24h $18K $190K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-31
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Iran's Blockade Will Likely End This Year, but the Strait Stays Broken for Months

likely (80%)

A ceasefire is effectively locked in, yet Hormuz shipping remains crippled — at just 4% for normal traffic by August and 48% by year-end, the gap between stopping the war and repairing the chokepoint is the real story unfolding now.

Updated 4:28 AM ET ▼ drifting down for days
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Flávio Bolsonaro Is Likely to Finish Second in Brazil's First Round

Flávio Bolsonaro: likely (84%)

Lula is still favored to win the presidency outright, but the consolidation of the Bolsonarista opposition behind Flávio makes a Lula-versus-Bolsonaro runoff the most probable shape of the election — a dynasty rematch by another name.

Updated 6:10 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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Eizenkot Holds a Narrow Lead to Become Israel's Next Prime Minister

Gadi Eizenkot: a coin flip (52%)

A dead-heat signal in a high-attention race: Eizenkot's 52% edge over Netanyahu's 32% is real but razor-thin, and Lieberman's quiet uptick suggests the field hasn't fully consolidated — Israel's post-war political order remains genuinely unsettled.

Updated 4:35 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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