Financeleaning 4.25%

The Fed's Rate Path Is Now Anyone's Guess Through Year-End

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?”

4.25%: a coin flip (51%)
Leading outcome 4.25% 51% A coin flip · Rising · A · tracked 36 days peak 51% (25d ago) · low 39% (29d ago) leaning yes → a coin flip
24h move ▼ 17.5 pts 4.25%
Traded 24h $71K $7.0M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 8 8 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

4.25% 51% ▼ 17.5
4.0% 24% ▲ 3.4
≥ 4.5% 16% ▲ 5.7
3.5% 1% 0.2
3.75% 1% 0.1
3.25% 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Fed Decision in October? Polymarket · No change 80% · -3.0 24h
Fed decision in Oct 2026? Kalshi · Fed maintains rate 82% · -2.0 24h
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? Polymarket · 4.25% 51% · -17.5 24h
Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · 25 bps increase 76% · +1.0 24h
Fed Decision in January? Polymarket · No change 64% · -1.0 24h
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 Polymarket · No change 90% · -3.0 24h
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket · 0 (0 bps) 96% · +0.7 24h
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) Polymarket · Hike–Pause–Hike 62% · -5.0 24h
The Money Talks — The Fed Likely Holds Rates Steady in October — And the Case Is Getting Stronger
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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October 13: very likely (94%)

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Google's Gemini 4.0 Is Almost Certain to Arrive by Late October

virtually certain (98%)

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Updated 12:50 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $127K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 69 days range 99% (4d ago) – 12% (64d ago) a coin flip → virtually certain 6 tier changes