World

Trump Is Unlikely to Visit Greenland This Year

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will Trump visit Greenland by...?”

unlikely (12%)
Leading outcome December 31 12% Unlikely · Stable · D
24h move ▼ 1.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $13K $296K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

December 31 12% ▼ 1.0
October 31 8% ▼ 1.0
September 30 2% 0.2
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Russia Is Very Likely to Enter Dobropillia Before Year-End

very likely (95%)

What had been a distant possibility is now a near-certainty, and the timeline is compressing fast — September entry odds surged to 88%, signaling traders believe the fall offensive is accelerating. With a ceasefire still priced at just 14% by year-end, there is no diplomatic brake in sight.

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a coin flip (52%)

What was probably not happening a day ago is now genuinely uncertain — Kushner has surged from the margins to the most likely named participant, even as a formal nuclear deal this year sits at just 34% and Hormuz traffic is priced to remain disrupted through year-end, suggesting any talks would be tactical positioning rather than a path to resolution.

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World odds favor Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro Now Favors to Win Brazil's Presidency

Flávio Bolsonaro: leaning yes (62%)

The money places him ahead but not safely so — Lula is still priced at 38% to win, and the first-round picture shows Lula likely topping the ballot before a runoff decides it. This is a race the Bolsonaro camp leads but cannot yet call.

Updated 1:28 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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traded today $747K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 54 days range 66% (50d ago) – 50% (8d ago) 2 tier changes venues disagree 3.5pp