World

The US-Iran Ceasefire Very Likely Holds Through Early November

By Priced In News Staff

virtually certain (98%)

Leading outcome November 5 98% Virtually certain · A very likely → virtually certain

24h move ▲ 4.9 pts November 5

Traded 24h $487K $594K all time

Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

November 5 98% ▲ 4.9

November 6 94% ▲ 6.0

November 8 86% ▲ 4.5

November 15 64% ▲ 3.0

November 30 42% ▲ 4.5

December 31 30% ▼ 0.5

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 31 100%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · November 4 100% · +1.2 24h

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 70% · +6.5 24h

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · November 5 98% · +4.9 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 12%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 10% · -0.5 24h

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 34% · -3.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 4% · -0.9 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 3% · -0.9 24h

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 69% · +4.0 24h

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 23% · -12.0 24h

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 44% · +6.0 24h

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...? Polymarket · December 31 13% · -8.0 24h

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Kazem Gharibabadi 52% · -3.5 24h

Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 92% · +1.8 24h

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 28% · +1.0 24h

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Polymarket · Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) 15% · -0.5 24h

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket · December 31 3% · -3.0 24h

Iran Nuke before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 3% · -1.3 24h