Democrats Are Favored to Win the Senate — With or Without an Iran Deal
Source: Polymarket market “Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?”
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: leaning yes (65%)
Leading outcome
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 65%
Leaning yes · Stable · B · tracked 8 days
venues disagree 72.5pp
24h move
▲
1.3 pts
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
Traded 24h
$34K
$260K all time
Resolves by
2026-11-04
Source markets
40
40 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
65%
▲
1.3
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate
32%
0.4
Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate
2%
0.3
Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate
2%
0.2
Source markets for this story
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 90%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 62%
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 62%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 62%
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 90%
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 68%
Minnesota Senate winner?
Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 86% · -1.0 24h
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Kalshi · Nithya Raman 53%
New York Attorney General winner?
Kalshi · Letitia James 89% · -5.1 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 36%
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 62% · -1.0 24h
New York Governor winner?
Kalshi · Kathy Hochul 93%
South Carolina Senate winner?
Kalshi · Darline Graham 83%
Mississippi Senate winner?
Kalshi · Cindy Hyde-Smith 88% · -2.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 48 18% · +1.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 66%
Texas Governor winner?
Kalshi · Greg Abbott 76% · -1.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $85; D Senate 59%
MN-05 House winner?
Kalshi · Ilhan Omar 94%
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 70% · -1.0 24h
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 60% · +1.0 24h
Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 23, 2026?
Kalshi · James Talarico 89% · +6.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 62%
Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 68% · -1.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo
Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 47% · -3.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 62% · -1.1 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 64%
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Roger Marshall 65%
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 93% · -7.7 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 76% · -1.8 24h
Montana Senate winner?
Kalshi · Kurt Alme 91%
Tennessee Governor winner?
Kalshi · Marsha Blackburn 94% · +0.9 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 70% · +1.5 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
Polymarket · No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 65% · +1.3 24h
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Chris Pappas (D) 88% · -2.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · ≤47 40% · +1.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 66% · -3.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 96% · +0.5 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 91% · -0.5 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Mary Peltola 74%
The Money Talks —
The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
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