World

The Strait of Hormuz Remains a War Zone With No Near-Term Exit

By Priced In News Staff

very likely (95%)

Leading outcome October 5 95% Very likely · A

24h move 0.4 pts October 5

Traded 24h $26K $36K all time

Resolves by 2026-11-01

Where the money stands

October 5 95% 0.4

October 11 94% 0.0

October 1 92% ▲ 1.5

October 2 92% ▼ 2.5

October 6 92% ▼ 0.9

October 14 64% ▲ 11.5

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 15 98% · +1.2 24h

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 67% · -0.5 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 15 98% · +1.4 24h

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 66% · -3.0 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 18%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 14% · -1.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 1%

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Polymarket · Yes 78% · +1.5 24h

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 8%

Saudi airspace closed by...? Polymarket · December 31 18% · +1.0 24h

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 20% · -0.5 24h

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? Polymarket · October 5 95%

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 36% · +1.0 24h

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...? Polymarket · November 30 64% · +6.0 24h

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 34% · +1.0 24h

Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 87% · -0.6 24h

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 42% · -4.0 24h

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? Polymarket · December 31 17%